Navigating External Shocks: Capital Flow Responses and Policy Effectiv…
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06.18 09:00
This study analyzed the effects of uncertainty and interest rate hike shocks on capital flows, as well as the effectiveness of economic stabilization policies. When comparing the impacts of global economic policy uncertainty shocks and individual country economic policy uncertainty shocks, empirical analysis showed that global economic policy uncertainty shocks had a significant effect on capital flows. This suggests that global factors are more closely associated with capital flows than country-specific factors, relating to discussions on the global financial cycle. Although classified as an advanced economy, Korea has a shallow foreign exchange market and its financial markets are sensitive to external shocks, so the spillover effects of uncertainty shocks need to be analyzed through various channels like trade, capital transactions, industrial structure, and monetary policy. As financial globalization progresses with Fintech and digital finance, the spillover effects of external shocks through capital transactions are expected to increase, especially requiring close monitoring of shocks from countries with similar industrial structures to Korea.